35, No. 2 (February 1980): p. 155, 169–170.
760. Cм.: Daniel Kahneman, slide show for Thinking Fast and Slow, thinking-fast– and-slow-oscar-trial.ppt.
761. См.: Isaiah Berlin, The Proper Study of Mankind (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 1998), p. 436–498, quote 436.
762. См.: Tetlock, p. 15, quote 56.
763. См.: Dan Gardner and Philip Tetlock, “What’s Wrong with Expert Predictions,” https://www.cato-unbound.org/2011/07/11/dan-gardner-philip-tetlock/ overcoming-our-aversion-acknowledging-our-ignorance.
764. См.: Tetlock, p. 138.
765. См.: Tetlock, p. 42–88, 98, 125–141, quote 63.
766. См.: Susan Pulliam, “At Bill’s Barber Shop, Tn Like Flynn’ Is A Cut Above the Rest – Owner’s Tech-Stock Chit-Chat Enriches Cape Cod Locals; The Maytag Dealer Is Wary,” The Wall Street Journal, March 13, 2000, Al.
767. Личная беседа со Сьюзен Пуллиам.
768. См.: Susan Pulliam, “At Bill’s Barber Shop, Tn Like Flynn’ Is A Cut Above the Res t– Owner’s Tech-Stock Chit-Chat Enriches Cape Cod Locals; The Maytag Dealer Is Wary.”
769. См.: Susan Pulliam and Ruth Simon, “Nasdaq Believers Keep the Faith To Recoup Losses in Rebound,” The Wall Street Journal, June 21, 2000, Cl.
770. Cм.: Susan Pulliam, “Hair Today, Gone Tomorrow: Tech Ills Shave Barber,” The Wall Street Journal, March 7, 2001, Cl.
771. См.: Jonathan Cheng, “A Barber Misses Market’s New Buzz,” The Wall Street Journal, March 8, 2013, и Susan Pulliam, “Hair Today, Gone Tomorrow: Tech Ills Shave Barber.”
772. Источник: Investment Company Institute 2016 Fact Book from ici.org for U.S. equity fund holdings; выборка по рынку: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/CM.MKT.LCAP.CD?end=2000&start=1990, дата обращения 17712.2017.
773. См.: Van Wagoner clip: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i9uR6WQNDn4.
774. См.: Betting on the Market, эфир 27.01.1997, http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/betting/etaFscript.html, дата обращения 17.11.2016.
775. См.: Diya Gullapalli, “Van Wagoner to Step Down As Manager of Growth Fund,” The Wall Street Journal, August 4, 2008. Также см: Jonathan Burton, “From Fame, Fortune to Flamed-Out Star,” The Wall Street Journal, March 10, 2010.
776. См.: Clifford Asness, “Bubble Logic: Or, How to Learn to Stop Worrying and Love the Bull,” доклад, 45–6, https://ssm.com/abstract=240371, дата обращения 12.11.2016.
777. См.: Mike Snow, “Day-Trade Believers Teach High-Risk Investing,” The Washington Post, July 6, 1998.
778. См.: Arthur Levitt, testimony before Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, Committee on Governmental Affairs, September 16, 1999, https://www.sec.gov/news/testimony/testarchive/1999/tsty2199.htm, дата обращения, 29.12.2019.
779. См.: Mark Gongloff, “Where Are They Now: The Beardstown Ladies,” The Wall Street Journal, May 1, 2006.
780. Cм.: Calmetta Y. Coleman, “Beardstown Ladies Add Disclaimer That Makes Returns Look ‘Hooey,’” The Wall Street Journal, February 27, 1998.
781. См.: Cassidy, p. 119.
782. См.: Mahar, p. 262–263, 306–309, quote 307; и приговоре Бонду: “Ex-Money Manager Gets 12 Years in Scheme,” Los Angeles Times, February 12, 2003.
783. См.: Gregory Zuckerman and Paul Beckett, “Tiger Makes It Official: Funds Will Shut Down,” The Wall Street Journal, March 31,2000. В конце 1990-х годов автор этих строк и сам столкнулся с подобным (в мягком варианте), но быстро научился держать мнение об акциях технологических компаний при себе. Еще у читателя может возникнуть вопрос, почему мы, знакомые с «Распространенными массовыми заблуждениями» и помнящие о том, что Маккей не предвидел «железнодорожной мании» вскоре после выхода его книги, – так вот, почему мы не опознали интернет-пузырь заранее. Вообще-то автор (я) успел опубликовать работу по финансам в самый разгар пузыря (The Intelligent Asset Allocator. New York: McGraw-Hill, Inc., 2000). Там приводилась подробная характеристика пузыря (с. 124–132), а книга Маккея кратко упоминалась на с. 178. См. веб-сайт издательства McGraw-Hill: http://www. efficientfrontier.com/ files/TIAA-extract.pdf.
784. См.: Charles W. Kadlec, Dow 100,000 (Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall Press, 1999).
785. См.: James K. Glassman and Kevin A. Hassett, Dow 36,000 (New York: Times Business, 1999); и Charles W. Kadlec, Dow 100,000 Fact or Fiction (New York: Prentice Hall Press, 1999).
786. См.: Schwed, p. 54.
Глава 15
787. См.: “Dabiq: Why is Syrian town so important for IS?” BBC News (October 4, 2016), http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east‐30083303, дата обращения 30.05.2018.
788. См.: David Cook, Studies in Muslim Apocalyptic (Princeton, NJ: The Darwin Press, Inc., 2002), p. 8.
789. См.: David Cook, Contemporary Muslim Apocalyptic Literature (Syracuse, NY: Syracuse University Press, 2005), p. 84.
790. Cм.: Samuel P. Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of the World Order (New York: Simon & Shuster, 1996), p. 257–258.
791. См.: ‘Arif, Muhammad Tzzat, Hal al-Dajjalyahkum al – ‘alam al-an? (Cairo: Dar al-Ftisam, 1997), 85, цит. по: Cook, Contemporary Muslim Apocalyptic Literature, p. 220.
792. См.: Jean-Pierre Filiu, Apocalypse in Islam, trans. M. B. Devoise (Berkeley: University of California Press, 2011), 14; и Cook, Contemporary Muslim Apocalyptic Literature, p. 16.
793. См.: Cook, Studies in Muslim Apocalyptic, p. 6–13.
794. См.: William McCants, The ISIS Apocalypse (New York: St Martin’s Press, 2015), p. 23.
795. Там же, p. 26.
796. См.: Cook, Contemporary Muslim Apocalyptic Literature, p. 7.
797. См.: Cook, Studies in Muslim Apocalyptic, p. 95–97.
798. См.: Thomas Lippman, Inside the Mirage (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 2004), p. 220; Bruce Riedel, Kings and Presidents (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2018), p. 50; и Cook, Contemporary Muslim Apocalyptic Literature, p. 23, 33.
799. См.: Cook, Contemporary Muslim Apocalyptic Literature, p. 117.
800. Cм.: Filiu, 14; и Cook, Contemporary Muslim Apocalyptic Literature, p. 8, 50–52.
801. См.: Cook, Contemporary Muslim Apocalyptic Literature, p. 8–11; Filiu, p. xi, 11–18.
802. См.: Cook, Contemporary Muslim Apocalyptic Literature, p. 232–233.
803. Цит. по: Gorenberg, 188.
804. Там же, 191.
805. См.: Filiu, p. 83–94, quote 86; и Cook, Contemporary Muslim Apocalyptic Literature, p. 64, 68.
806. Личная беседа с Жаном-Пьером Филью.
807. См.: Filiu, p. 140.
808. См.: Filiu, p. 62–63.
809. См.: Edward Mortimer, Faith and Power (New York: Vintage Books, 1982), p. 76–79.
810. Cм.: Hilaire Belloc, The Modern Traveler (London: Edward Arnold, 1898), p. 41.
811. См.: Robert Lacey, Inside the Kingdom (New York: Viking Press, 2009), p. 15–16.
812. Там же, p. 3.
813. См.: Thomas Hegghammer and Stephane Lacroix, “Rejectionist Islamism in Saudi Arabia: The Story of Juyahman al – ‘Utaybi
