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class="p1">The AlphaStar team, «AlphaStar: Mastering the real-time strategy game StarCraft II,» DeepMind Research Blog, January 24, 2019, deepmind.com/blog/article/alphastar-mastering-real-time-strategy-game-starcraft-ii.
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Эта оценка пессимистична по сравнению с результатами других опросов. Поскольку многие из них проводились на конференциях по ИИ, охват исследователей с разным профессиональным уровнем был намного более широким. Большинство прогнозов появления универсального ИИ с вероятностью 50 % приходится на 2040–2050 годы. Список опросов см. в сноске 63 в главе 5.
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Наш путешественник во времени вторит бывшему министру финансов и директору Национального экономического совета Лоуренсу Саммерсу, который в ноябре 2016 года предсказал, что к 2050 году от четверти до трети мужчин трудоспособного возраста будут вытеснены из трудовых ресурсов. (См. сноску 1 в главе 6.)
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См., например: Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, «The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?», Oxford Martin School Programme on Technology and Employment, Working Paper, September 17, 2013, www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/future-of-employment.pdf, p. 38.
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U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, «Business sector: Real output per hour of all persons (OPHPBS),» retrieved from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, July 22, 2020, fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OPHPBS; U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, «Business sector: Real compensation per hour (PRS84006151),» retrieved from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, July 22, 2020, fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PRS84006151.
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Martha Ross and Nicole Bateman, «Low-wage work is more pervasive than you think, and there aren’t enough ‘good jobs’ to go around,» Brookings Institution, November 21, 2019, www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2019/11/21/low-wage-work-is-more-pervasive-than-you-think-and-there-arent-enough-good-jobs-to-go-around/.
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«The U. S. Private Sector Job Quality Index (JQI),» accessed July 15, 2020, www.jobqualityindex.com/.
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Gwynn Guilford, «The great American labor paradox: Plentiful jobs, most of them bad,» Quartz, November 21, 2019, qz.com/1752676/the-job-quality-index-is-the-economic-indicator-weve-been-missing/.
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Jeff Jeffrey, «U. S. companies are rolling in cash, and they’re growing increasingly fearful to spend it,» The Business Journals, December 12, 2018, www.bizjournals.com/bizjournals/news/2018/12/12/u-s-companies-are-hoarding-cash-and-theyre-growing.html.
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