Глава 5. Рискованный бизнес
1. Gerd Gigerenzer, Calculated Risks (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2002), 28–29.
2. John Rennie, “Editor’s Commentary: The Cold Odds Against Columbia”, Scientific American, February 7, 2003.
3. Gerd Gigerenzer, Calculated Risks, 26–28.
4. Jeremy J. Siegel, Stocks for the Long Run, 3rd ed. (New York: McGraw Hill, 2002), 13[10].
5. Michael J. Maboussin and Kristen Bartholdson, “Long Strange Trip: Thoughts on Stock Market Returns”, Credit Suisse First Boston Equity Research, January 9, 2003.
6. См. главу 3.
Глава 6. Вы эксперт?
1. J. Scott Armstrong, “The Seer-Sucker Theory: The Value of Experts in Forecasting”, Technology Review 83 (June-July 1980):16–24.
2. Arul Gawande, Complications: A Surgeon’s Notes on an Imperfect Science (New York: Picador, 2002), 35–37.
3. Paul J. Feltovich, Rand J. Spiro, and Richard L. Coulsen, “Issues of Expert Flexibility in Contexts Characterized by Complexity and Change”, in Expertise in Context: Human and Machine, ed. Paul J. Feltovich, Kenneth M. Ford, and Robert R. Hoffman (Menlo Park, Cal.: AAAI Press and Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1997), 125–46.
4. R. J. Spiro, W. Vispoel, J. Schmitz, A. Samarapungavan, and A. Boeger, “Knowledge Acquisition for Application: Cognitive Flexibility and Transfer in Complex Content Domains”, in Executive Control Processes, ed. B. C. Britton (Hillsdale, N. J.: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, 1987), 177–99.
5. Robyn M. Dawes, David Faust, and Paul E. Meehl, “Clinical Versus Actuarial Judgment”, in Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment, ed. Thomas Gilovich, Dale Griffin, and Daniel Kahneman (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2002), 716–29.
6. Gawande, Complications, 44.
7. Katie Haffner, “In an Ancient Game, Computing’s Future”, The New York Times, August 1, 2002.
8. James Surowiecki, The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies, Societies and Nations (New York: Doubleday, 2004)[11].
9. Joe Nocera, “On Oil Supply, Opinions Aren’t Scarce”, The New York Times, September 10, 2005.
10. Philip E. Tetlock, Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? (Princeton, N. J.: Princeton University Press, 2005), 68.
11. Там же, 73–75.
Глава 7. «Горячая рука» в инвестировании
1. Thomas Gilovich, Robert Valone, and Amos Tversky, “The Hot Hand in Basketball: On the Misperception of Random Sequences”, Cognitive Psychology 17 (1985): 295–314.
2. Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, “Belief in the Law of Small Numbers”, Psychological Bulletin 76 (1971): 105–10. Иллюстрацию этой мысли см. в статье Криса Ветцеля на сайте http://www.rhodes.edu/psych/faculty/
3. wetzel/courses/wetzelsyllabus223.htm.
4. Пример взят из рецензии на книгу Стивена Гулда «Полоса удач» (Stephen Jay Gould, “The Streaks of Streaks”, New York Review of Books, August 18, 1988). См. также на сайте http://www.nybooks.com/articles/4337 (доступно на 25 мая 2005 г.).
5. Stephen Gould, Triumph and Tragedy in Mudville (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 2003), 151–72. См.: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/history/
6. rare_feats/index.jsp?feature=hitting_streaks.
